• 11.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.2 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 12.4
• −0.5 opponent leak — they concede 353.4/game vs a 369 league average
• −1.0 at this ground — averages 10.7 there (32 gm)
• vs them: averages 11.9 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.