• 14.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.0 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 14.0
• +0.7 opponent leak — they concede 386.5/game vs a 369 league average
• −0.6 at this ground — averages 13.4 there (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 16.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.