• 10.7 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• −0.7 opponent leak — they concede 345.4/game vs a 369 league average
• +2.0 at this ground — averages 12.7 there (14 gm)
• vs them: averages 14.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.