• 23.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 23.6 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 23.8
• +1.1 opponent leak — they concede 386.2/game vs a 369 league average
• −0.1 at this ground — averages 23.6 there (72 gm)
• vs them: averages 22.8 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.