• 11.5 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 367.1/game vs a 369 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.