• 7.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.5 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.2
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 357.8/game vs a 369 league average
• vs them: averages 9.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 16 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.