• 9.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.8 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 9.5
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 357.8/game vs a 369 league average
• vs them: averages 6.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.