• 10.1 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• −0.6 opponent leak — they concede 345.4/game vs a 369 league average
• +1.9 at this ground — averages 12 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 14.0 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 21 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.