• 14.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.3 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 15.2
• −0.9 opponent leak — they concede 345.4/game vs a 369 league average
• −2.0 at this ground — averages 12.7 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 11.0 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 25 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.