• 24.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 24.7 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 24.0
• −0.7 opponent leak — they concede 357.8/game vs a 369 league average
• +1.9 at this ground — averages 26.3 there (77 gm)
• vs them: averages 24.7 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.