• 15.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 15.5 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 15.5
• −1.0 opponent leak — they concede 345.4/game vs a 369 league average
• +0.9 at this ground — averages 16.4 there (5 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 29 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.