• 11.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.3 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 11.3
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 357.8/game vs a 369 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.