• 16.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 15.6 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 16.9
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 365.8/game vs a 369 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 32 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.