• 8.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.4 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 8.4
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 353.4/game vs a 369 league average
• −0.1 at this ground — averages 8.3 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.