• 8.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.4 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 8.4
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 369.9/game vs a 369 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.