• 17.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 17.2 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 17.2
• +0.8 opponent leak — they concede 386.2/game vs a 369 league average
• +1.2 at this ground — averages 18.4 there (22 gm)
• vs them: averages 19.1 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.