Only 3 games in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
3.7+0.2 vs your line
3.8 baseline — his last 4 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 367.1/game vs a 369 league average
vs them: averages 4.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.