• 16.7 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• +0.9 opponent leak — they concede 389.2/game vs a 369 league average
• −0.1 at this ground — averages 16.6 there (5 gm)
• wet forecast: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 17.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.