• 14.5 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• +0.4 opponent leak — they concede 377.9/game vs a 369 league average
• +4.4 at this ground — averages 18.9 there (43 gm)
• vs them: averages 18.4 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.