• 10.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.1 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 11.7
• +0.5 opponent leak — they concede 386.5/game vs a 369 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 10.9 there (11 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 19 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.