• 25.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 24.9 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 25.7
• +1.2 opponent leak — they concede 386.5/game vs a 369 league average
• −0.9 at this ground — averages 24.3 there (70 gm)
• vs them: averages 24.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.