Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Jordan Dawson

Adelaide · @ ESS

5.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

47% (7/15)

enter odds to compare

Avg

5.6

5.2

L10

6.3

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jordanvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

25.3Disposals398.8

17.1Kicks232.6

5.6Marks116.9

5.9Tackles50.5

3.7Clearances33.3

4.9Inside 50s55.1

9.3Contested Poss.121.4

1.3Goals15.0

Disposals

Jordan25.3

ESS398.8

Kicks

Jordan17.1

ESS232.6

Marks

Jordan5.6

ESS116.9

Tackles

Jordan5.9

ESS50.5

Clearances

Jordan3.7

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Jordan4.9

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Jordan9.3

ESS121.4

Goals

Jordan1.3

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Marks

116.9per game · league avg 93.0

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Docklands5.2(9)-0.1

Everywhere else5.3(98)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)3.5(11)-2.1

Dry games5.6(96)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.