Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

John Noble

Gold Coast · vs MEL

7.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

33% (6/18)

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Avg

7.1

7.6

L10

8.3

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Johnvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

26.3Disposals382.0

17.3Kicks220.8

7.1Marks101.2

1.6Tackles51.0

0.4Clearances35.6

2.7Inside 50s52.3

3.9Contested Poss.129.3

0.4Goals13.1

Disposals

John26.3

MEL382.0

Kicks

John17.3

MEL220.8

Marks

John7.1

MEL101.2

Tackles

John1.6

MEL51.0

Clearances

John0.4

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

John2.7

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

John3.9

MEL129.3

Goals

John0.4

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Marks

101.2per game · league avg 93.0

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Carrara6.7(17)+1.6

Everywhere else5.2(26)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)4.3(3)-1.5

Dry games5.9(40)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.