Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

John Noble

Gold Coast · vs MEL

0.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

56% (10/18)

enter odds to compare

Avg

0.8

0.6

L10

0.9

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Johnvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

26.3Disposals382.0

17.3Kicks220.8

7.1Marks101.2

1.6Tackles51.0

0.4Clearances35.6

2.7Inside 50s52.3

3.9Contested Poss.129.3

0.4Goals13.1

Disposals

John26.3

MEL382.0

Kicks

John17.3

MEL220.8

Marks

John7.1

MEL101.2

Tackles

John1.6

MEL51.0

Clearances

John0.4

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

John2.7

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

John3.9

MEL129.3

Goals

John0.4

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Frees For

17.1per game · league avg 19.0

#16 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Frees For

At Carrara0.7(17)-0.1

Everywhere else0.8(26)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(3)+0.3

Dry games0.7(40)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.