Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Leo Lombard

Gold Coast · vs MEL

8.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

39% (7/18)

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Avg

8.2

7.8

L10

8.4

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Leovs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

14.6Disposals382.0

6.4Kicks220.8

2.7Marks101.2

2.8Tackles51.0

1.1Clearances35.6

2.8Inside 50s52.3

5.8Contested Poss.129.3

0.7Goals13.1

Disposals

Leo14.6

MEL382.0

Kicks

Leo6.4

MEL220.8

Marks

Leo2.7

MEL101.2

Tackles

Leo2.8

MEL51.0

Clearances

Leo1.1

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Leo2.8

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Leo5.8

MEL129.3

Goals

Leo0.7

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Handballs

161.2per game · league avg 155.5

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Carrara6.8(10)-0.5

Everywhere else7.3(12)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)3.0(2)-4.5

Dry games7.5(20)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.