Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Leo Lombard

Gold Coast · vs MEL

0.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

33% (6/18)

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Avg

0.5

1.2

L10

0.7

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Leovs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

14.6Disposals382.0

6.4Kicks220.8

2.7Marks101.2

2.8Tackles51.0

1.1Clearances35.6

2.8Inside 50s52.3

5.8Contested Poss.129.3

0.7Goals13.1

Disposals

Leo14.6

MEL382.0

Kicks

Leo6.4

MEL220.8

Marks

Leo2.7

MEL101.2

Tackles

Leo2.8

MEL51.0

Clearances

Leo1.1

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Leo2.8

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Leo5.8

MEL129.3

Goals

Leo0.7

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Frees For

17.1per game · league avg 19.0

#16 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Frees For

At Carrara0.4(10)-0.1

Everywhere else0.5(12)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(2)-0.5

Dry games0.5(20)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.