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Game conditionsKardinia Park · GeelongRound 22 · 2026-08-08 16:35☁ 11.2°C☂ 0.6mm (41%)🌬 20.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Baileyvs all playersStatESS concedePer game
32.1
100
Disposalsfavorable
100
402.2
Bailey 32.1/game
ESS concedes 402.2/game · league avg 369.6
#1 of 18 clubs most conceded
19.7
99
Kicksfavorable
100
234.0
Bailey 19.7/game
ESS concedes 234.0/game · league avg 213.9
#1 of 18 clubs most conceded
4.2
61
Marksneutral
100
118.6
Bailey 4.2/game
ESS concedes 118.6/game · league avg 93.5
#1 of 18 clubs most conceded
4.8
94
Tacklesunfavorable
12
50.3
Bailey 4.8/game
ESS concedes 50.3/game · league avg 56.5
#16 of 18 clubs most conceded
5.4
95
Clearancesunfavorable
18
33.6
Bailey 5.4/game
ESS concedes 33.6/game · league avg 35.7
#15 of 18 clubs most conceded
7.2
100
Inside 50sfavorable
88
55.8
Bailey 7.2/game
ESS concedes 55.8/game · league avg 52.9
#3 of 18 clubs most conceded
11.1
97
Contested Poss.unfavorable
6
121.8
Bailey 11.1/game
ESS concedes 121.8/game · league avg 128.8
#17 of 18 clubs most conceded
0.4
60
Goalsneutral
94
15.2
Bailey 0.4/game
ESS concedes 15.2/game · league avg 12.8
#2 of 18 clubs most conceded
Disposalsfavorable
Bailey32.1
100
ESS402.2
100
Bailey 32.1/game
ESS concedes 402.2/game · league avg 369.6
#1 of 18 clubs most conceded
Kicksfavorable
Bailey19.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
ESS concede · Marks
118.6per game · league avg 93.5
#1 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Marks
At Kardinia Park4.5(16)-0.1
Everywhere else4.6(25)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Marks
Wet games (≥1mm)4.0(2)-0.6
Dry games4.6(39)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs ESS · Marks
Avg diff
+1.7
Avg diff %
+41%
Hit rate
8/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-25HAWWill Day3.75+35%
07-25HAWConnor Macdonald5.19+76%
07-25HAWMabior Chol4.85+3%
07-25HAWMassimo DAmbrosio4.86+24%
07-25HAWOllie Greeves5.78+41%
07-25HAWBailey Macdonald2.83+8%
07-25HAWTom Barrass4.46+35%
07-25HAWCam Mackenzie2.96+109%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Bailey's. Computed from this app's own records.
