Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Bailey Smith

Geelong · @ COL

4.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

47% (8/17)

enter odds to compare

Avg

4.2

4.0

L10

3.6

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ COL

Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-07-30 19:30☁ 9.1°C☂ 0.3mm (4%)🌬 5.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Baileyvs all playersStatCOL concedePer game

32.4Disposals389.3

19.8Kicks227.3

4.2Marks105.6

4.9Tackles48.4

5.5Clearances35.6

7.2Inside 50s55.2

11.4Contested Poss.128.0

0.5Goals11.6

Disposals

Bailey32.4

COL389.3

Kicks

Bailey19.8

COL227.3

Marks

Bailey4.2

COL105.6

Tackles

Bailey4.9

COL48.4

Clearances

Bailey5.5

COL35.6

Inside 50s

Bailey7.2

COL55.2

Contested Poss.

Bailey11.4

COL128.0

Goals

Bailey0.5

COL11.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

COL concede · Marks

105.6per game · league avg 93.0

#4 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At M.C.G.4.9(11)+0.5

Everywhere else4.4(29)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)4.0(2)-0.6

Dry games4.6(38)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.