Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Bailey Smith

Geelong · @ COL

1.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

53% (9/17)

enter odds to compare

Avg

1.6

1.2

L10

1.5

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ COL

Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-07-30 19:30☁ 9.1°C☂ 0.3mm (4%)🌬 5.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Baileyvs all playersStatCOL concedePer game

32.4Disposals389.3

19.8Kicks227.3

4.2Marks105.6

4.9Tackles48.4

5.5Clearances35.6

7.2Inside 50s55.2

11.4Contested Poss.128.0

0.5Goals11.6

Disposals

Bailey32.4

COL389.3

Kicks

Bailey19.8

COL227.3

Marks

Bailey4.2

COL105.6

Tackles

Bailey4.9

COL48.4

Clearances

Bailey5.5

COL35.6

Inside 50s

Bailey7.2

COL55.2

Contested Poss.

Bailey11.4

COL128.0

Goals

Bailey0.5

COL11.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

COL concede · Frees For

16.9per game · league avg 19.0

#17 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Frees For

At M.C.G.0.6(11)-0.6

Everywhere else1.3(29)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(2)-0.1

Dry games1.1(38)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.