AFL
PProjectPunt
Bailey Smith
Bailey Smith
Geelong · @ MEL
1.5 FFO U
Hit rate
53% (9/17)
enter odds to compare
Avg
1.6
L5
1.2
L10
1.5
High
3
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
0GCSMar 063FREMar 143ADEMar 261HAWApr 062WCEApr 123WBDApr 171PORApr 253NORMay 022COLMay 093BRIMay 141SYDMay 230CARMay 291ADEJun 042GCSJun 121BRIJul 022GWSJul 110STKJul 16?MELJul 241.5
Line Over Under

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for Round 20 @ MEL
Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 20 · 2026-07-24 19:4011.3°C0mm (0%)🌬 16.3 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Bailey32.4
MEL382.0
Kicks
Bailey19.8
MEL220.8
Marks
Bailey4.2
MEL101.2
Tackles
Bailey4.9
MEL51.0
Clearances
Bailey5.5
MEL35.6
Inside 50s
Bailey7.2
MEL52.3
Contested poss.
Bailey11.4
MEL129.3
Goals
Bailey0.5
MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Frees For

17.1per game · league avg 19.0
#16 of 18 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Frees For

At M.C.G.0.6(11)-0.6
Everywhere else1.3(29)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(2)-0.1
Dry games1.1(38)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.