AFL
PProjectPunt
Bailey Smith
Bailey Smith
Geelong · @ MEL
32.5 DIO U
Hit rate
53% (9/17)
enter odds to compare
Avg
32.4
L5
31.8
L10
32.6
High
40
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
23GCSMar 0631FREMar 1440ADEMar 2633HAWApr 0634WCEApr 1233WBDApr 1730PORApr 2526NORMay 0240COLMay 0934BRIMay 1432SYDMay 2335CARMay 2934ADEJun 0427GCSJun 1231BRIJul 0232GWSJul 1135STKJul 16?MELJul 2432.5
Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 20 @ MEL
Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 20 · 2026-07-24 19:4011.3°C0mm (0%)🌬 16.3 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Bailey32.4
MEL382.0
Kicks
Bailey19.8
MEL220.8
Marks
Bailey4.2
MEL101.2
Tackles
Bailey4.9
MEL51.0
Clearances
Bailey5.5
MEL35.6
Inside 50s
Bailey7.2
MEL52.3
Contested poss.
Bailey11.4
MEL129.3
Goals
Bailey0.5
MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Disposals

382.0per game · league avg 369.3
#5 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Disposals

At M.C.G.32.8(11)+1.5
Everywhere else31.3(29)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Disposals

Wet games (≥1mm)35.5(2)+3.9
Dry games31.6(38)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.