Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

ADE

Daniel Curtin

Adelaide · @ ESS

0.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

64% (7/11)

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Avg

0.7

0.6

L10

0.8

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Danielvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

14.1Disposals398.8

9.5Kicks232.6

4.1Marks116.9

3.9Tackles50.5

1.5Clearances33.3

2.7Inside 50s55.1

5.9Contested Poss.121.4

0.2Goals15.0

Disposals

Daniel14.1

ESS398.8

Kicks

Daniel9.5

ESS232.6

Marks

Daniel4.1

ESS116.9

Tackles

Daniel3.9

ESS50.5

Clearances

Daniel1.5

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Daniel2.7

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Daniel5.9

ESS121.4

Goals

Daniel0.2

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Frees For

18.7per game · league avg 19.0

#10 of 18 most conceded

Middle of the road matchup.

Venue split · Frees For

At Docklands1.3(3)+0.6

Everywhere else0.7(40)

Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(5)+0.3

Dry games0.7(38)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.