Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

ESS

Zak Johnson

Essendon · vs ADE

7.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

40% (2/5)

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Avg

7.6

L10

7.6

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Zakvs all playersStatADE concedePer game

17.8Disposals356.6

10.2Kicks210.2

4.8Marks80.6

0.2Tackles60.7

0.2Clearances39.3

0.8Inside 50s52.4

2.4Contested Poss.138.8

0.0Goals11.1

Disposals

Zak17.8

ADE356.6

Kicks

Zak10.2

ADE210.2

Marks

Zak4.8

ADE80.6

Tackles

Zak0.2

ADE60.7

Clearances

Zak0.2

ADE39.3

Inside 50s

Zak0.8

ADE52.4

Contested Poss.

Zak2.4

ADE138.8

Goals

Zak0.0

ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Handballs

146.3per game · league avg 155.5

#16 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands6.4(5)+0.4

Everywhere else6.0(9)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)4.0(1)-2.3

Dry games6.3(13)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.