Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

CAR

Adam Cerra

Carlton · vs BRI

0.5 GAO —U —

Hit rate

27% (4/15)

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Avg

0.3

0.0

L10

0.3

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs BRI

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 19:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Adamvs all playersStatBRI concedePer game

19.6Disposals356.9

11.0Kicks198.7

4.6Marks79.9

3.7Tackles54.9

2.3Clearances32.9

3.1Inside 50s53.7

6.9Contested Poss.126.1

0.3Goals13.2

Disposals

Adam19.6

BRI356.9

Kicks

Adam11.0

BRI198.7

Marks

Adam4.6

BRI79.9

Tackles

Adam3.7

BRI54.9

Clearances

Adam2.3

BRI32.9

Inside 50s

Adam3.1

BRI53.7

Contested Poss.

Adam6.9

BRI126.1

Goals

Adam0.3

BRI13.2

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

BRI concede · Goal Assists

10.0per game · league avg 9.3

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Goal Assists

At Docklands0.3(23)-0.1

Everywhere else0.4(64)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Goal Assists

Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(5)-0.4

Dry games0.4(82)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.