Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Saad El-Hawli

Essendon · vs ADE

1.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

38% (3/8)

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Avg

1.6

1.2

L10

1.6

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Saadvs all playersStatADE concedePer game

14.6Disposals356.6

8.8Kicks210.2

3.6Marks80.6

1.6Tackles60.7

0.6Clearances39.3

1.5Inside 50s52.4

4.8Contested Poss.138.8

0.3Goals11.1

Disposals

Saad14.6

ADE356.6

Kicks

Saad8.8

ADE210.2

Marks

Saad3.6

ADE80.6

Tackles

Saad1.6

ADE60.7

Clearances

Saad0.6

ADE39.3

Inside 50s

Saad1.5

ADE52.4

Contested Poss.

Saad4.8

ADE138.8

Goals

Saad0.3

ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Tackles

60.7per game · league avg 56.9

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At Docklands0.9(9)-1.4

Everywhere else2.3(8)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)3.5(2)+2.2

Dry games1.3(15)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.