Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

James Peatling

Adelaide · @ ESS

8.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

50% (9/18)

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Avg

8.4

9.0

L10

8.8

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jamesvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

20.6Disposals398.8

12.2Kicks232.6

3.0Marks116.9

4.9Tackles50.5

4.5Clearances33.3

2.9Inside 50s55.1

9.7Contested Poss.121.4

0.2Goals15.0

Disposals

James20.6

ESS398.8

Kicks

James12.2

ESS232.6

Marks

James3.0

ESS116.9

Tackles

James4.9

ESS50.5

Clearances

James4.5

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

James2.9

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

James9.7

ESS121.4

Goals

James0.2

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Handballs

166.2per game · league avg 155.5

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands9.7(3)+1.6

Everywhere else8.1(38)

Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)7.4(5)-0.9

Dry games8.3(36)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.