Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Alex Neal-Bullen

Adelaide · @ ESS

6.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

47% (8/17)

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Avg

6.7

5.8

L10

6.8

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Alexvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

16.6Disposals398.8

9.9Kicks232.6

4.1Marks116.9

3.8Tackles50.5

1.0Clearances33.3

2.9Inside 50s55.1

5.9Contested Poss.121.4

0.7Goals15.0

Disposals

Alex16.6

ESS398.8

Kicks

Alex9.9

ESS232.6

Marks

Alex4.1

ESS116.9

Tackles

Alex3.8

ESS50.5

Clearances

Alex1.0

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Alex2.9

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Alex5.9

ESS121.4

Goals

Alex0.7

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Handballs

166.2per game · league avg 155.5

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands7.0(3)+0.1

Everywhere else6.9(39)

Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)6.0(5)-1.0

Dry games7.0(37)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.