Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Logan Morris

Brisbane Lions · @ CAR

1.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

35% (6/17)

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Avg

1.2

0.8

L10

1.0

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ CAR

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 19:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Loganvs all playersStatCAR concedePer game

11.9Disposals363.6

9.2Kicks210.2

4.9Marks89.8

1.5Tackles59.8

0.1Clearances35.7

2.1Inside 50s52.9

4.6Contested Poss.127.7

2.6Goals12.8

Disposals

Logan11.9

CAR363.6

Kicks

Logan9.2

CAR210.2

Marks

Logan4.9

CAR89.8

Tackles

Logan1.5

CAR59.8

Clearances

Logan0.1

CAR35.7

Inside 50s

Logan2.1

CAR52.9

Contested Poss.

Logan4.6

CAR127.7

Goals

Logan2.6

CAR12.8

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

CAR concede · Frees For

20.1per game · league avg 19.0

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Frees For

At Docklands0.7(7)-0.3

Everywhere else1.0(55)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-1.0

Dry games1.0(61)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.