Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Tim Kelly

West Coast · @ RIC

0.5 GAO —U —

Hit rate

56% (9/16)

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Avg

0.8

0.2

L10

0.6

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ RIC

Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 13:10☁ 15.6°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 19.6 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Timvs all playersStatRIC concedePer game

23.1Disposals391.8

11.4Kicks224.9

3.6Marks107.6

3.2Tackles53.8

4.7Clearances33.7

4.9Inside 50s56.5

9.5Contested Poss.129.3

0.1Goals15.3

Disposals

Tim23.1

RIC391.8

Kicks

Tim11.4

RIC224.9

Marks

Tim3.6

RIC107.6

Tackles

Tim3.2

RIC53.8

Clearances

Tim4.7

RIC33.7

Inside 50s

Tim4.9

RIC56.5

Contested Poss.

Tim9.5

RIC129.3

Goals

Tim0.1

RIC15.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

RIC concede · Goal Assists

11.6per game · league avg 9.3

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Goal Assists

At M.C.G.0.9(8)+0.2

Everywhere else0.7(124)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Goal Assists

Wet games (≥1mm)0.5(10)-0.2

Dry games0.7(122)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.