Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Sam Wicks

Sydney · @ STK

7.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

53% (8/15)

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Avg

7.7

7.0

L10

8.4

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ STK

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:05Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatSTK concedePer game

17.4Disposals379.3

9.7Kicks220.4

3.8Marks100.9

2.5Tackles50.0

0.5Clearances34.4

2.3Inside 50s52.1

4.7Contested Poss.123.7

0.1Goals12.4

Disposals

Sam17.4

STK379.3

Kicks

Sam9.7

STK220.4

Marks

Sam3.8

STK100.9

Tackles

Sam2.5

STK50.0

Clearances

Sam0.5

STK34.4

Inside 50s

Sam2.3

STK52.1

Contested Poss.

Sam4.7

STK123.7

Goals

Sam0.1

STK12.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

STK concede · Handballs

158.9per game · league avg 155.5

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands5.9(15)+0.8

Everywhere else5.1(86)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)4.7(3)-0.5

Dry games5.2(98)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.