Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Sam Wicks

Sydney · @ STK

0.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

40% (6/15)

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Avg

0.5

0.4

L10

0.5

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ STK

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:05Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatSTK concedePer game

17.4Disposals379.3

9.7Kicks220.4

3.8Marks100.9

2.5Tackles50.0

0.5Clearances34.4

2.3Inside 50s52.1

4.7Contested Poss.123.7

0.1Goals12.4

Disposals

Sam17.4

STK379.3

Kicks

Sam9.7

STK220.4

Marks

Sam3.8

STK100.9

Tackles

Sam2.5

STK50.0

Clearances

Sam0.5

STK34.4

Inside 50s

Sam2.3

STK52.1

Contested Poss.

Sam4.7

STK123.7

Goals

Sam0.1

STK12.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

STK concede · Frees For

16.8per game · league avg 19.0

#18 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Frees For

At Docklands0.7(15)+0.1

Everywhere else0.6(86)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)0.3(3)-0.2

Dry games0.6(98)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.