Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Matt Roberts

Sydney · @ STK

7.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

43% (6/14)

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Avg

7.4

7.0

L10

7.7

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ STK

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:05Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Mattvs all playersStatSTK concedePer game

17.9Disposals379.3

10.4Kicks220.4

4.4Marks100.9

2.1Tackles50.0

1.4Clearances34.4

3.1Inside 50s52.1

5.6Contested Poss.123.7

0.1Goals12.4

Disposals

Matt17.9

STK379.3

Kicks

Matt10.4

STK220.4

Marks

Matt4.4

STK100.9

Tackles

Matt2.1

STK50.0

Clearances

Matt1.4

STK34.4

Inside 50s

Matt3.1

STK52.1

Contested Poss.

Matt5.6

STK123.7

Goals

Matt0.1

STK12.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

STK concede · Handballs

158.9per game · league avg 155.5

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands6.0(8)+0.2

Everywhere else5.8(54)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)6.5(2)+0.7

Dry games5.8(60)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.