Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Tom Papley

Sydney · @ STK

3.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

38% (5/13)

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Avg

3.1

2.6

L10

3.5

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ STK

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:05Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Tomvs all playersStatSTK concedePer game

15.4Disposals379.3

10.1Kicks220.4

3.1Marks100.9

2.7Tackles50.0

1.5Clearances34.4

5.1Inside 50s52.1

5.6Contested Poss.123.7

1.5Goals12.4

Disposals

Tom15.4

STK379.3

Kicks

Tom10.1

STK220.4

Marks

Tom3.1

STK100.9

Tackles

Tom2.7

STK50.0

Clearances

Tom1.5

STK34.4

Inside 50s

Tom5.1

STK52.1

Contested Poss.

Tom5.6

STK123.7

Goals

Tom1.5

STK12.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

STK concede · Marks

100.9per game · league avg 93.0

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Docklands4.9(17)+1.2

Everywhere else3.7(132)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)4.0(6)+0.2

Dry games3.8(143)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.