Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Hayden McLean

Sydney · @ STK

4.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

43% (3/7)

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Avg

4.0

3.8

L10

4.0

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ STK

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:05Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Haydenvs all playersStatSTK concedePer game

9.1Disposals379.3

5.1Kicks220.4

2.7Marks100.9

1.6Tackles50.0

0.7Clearances34.4

1.0Inside 50s52.1

5.3Contested Poss.123.7

1.7Goals12.4

Disposals

Hayden9.1

STK379.3

Kicks

Hayden5.1

STK220.4

Marks

Hayden2.7

STK100.9

Tackles

Hayden1.6

STK50.0

Clearances

Hayden0.7

STK34.4

Inside 50s

Hayden1.0

STK52.1

Contested Poss.

Hayden5.3

STK123.7

Goals

Hayden1.7

STK12.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

STK concede · Handballs

158.9per game · league avg 155.5

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands4.1(13)-0.1

Everywhere else4.1(91)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)5.3(6)+1.3

Dry games4.1(98)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.