Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Tom McCartin

Sydney · @ STK

1.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

27% (4/15)

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Avg

1.1

0.6

L10

1.1

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ STK

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:05Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Tomvs all playersStatSTK concedePer game

20.1Disposals379.3

10.6Kicks220.4

7.5Marks100.9

1.5Tackles50.0

0.5Clearances34.4

1.1Inside 50s52.1

5.8Contested Poss.123.7

0.0Goals12.4

Disposals

Tom20.1

STK379.3

Kicks

Tom10.6

STK220.4

Marks

Tom7.5

STK100.9

Tackles

Tom1.5

STK50.0

Clearances

Tom0.5

STK34.4

Inside 50s

Tom1.1

STK52.1

Contested Poss.

Tom5.8

STK123.7

Goals

Tom0.0

STK12.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

STK concede · Frees For

16.8per game · league avg 19.0

#18 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Frees For

At Docklands0.7(18)

Everywhere else0.7(134)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)0.6(5)-0.1

Dry games0.7(147)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.