Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Jake Lloyd

Sydney · @ STK

7.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

50% (9/18)

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Avg

7.5

7.2

L10

8.4

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ STK

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:05Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jakevs all playersStatSTK concedePer game

16.9Disposals379.3

9.4Kicks220.4

4.2Marks100.9

2.1Tackles50.0

0.8Clearances34.4

2.9Inside 50s52.1

4.5Contested Poss.123.7

0.6Goals12.4

Disposals

Jake16.9

STK379.3

Kicks

Jake9.4

STK220.4

Marks

Jake4.2

STK100.9

Tackles

Jake2.1

STK50.0

Clearances

Jake0.8

STK34.4

Inside 50s

Jake2.9

STK52.1

Contested Poss.

Jake4.5

STK123.7

Goals

Jake0.6

STK12.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

STK concede · Handballs

158.9per game · league avg 155.5

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands8.3(21)

Everywhere else8.3(153)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)8.6(8)+0.3

Dry games8.3(166)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.