Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Zac Bailey

Brisbane Lions · @ CAR

2.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

59% (10/17)

enter odds to compare

Avg

2.9

2.8

L10

2.8

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ CAR

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 19:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Zacvs all playersStatCAR concedePer game

21.3Disposals363.6

13.6Kicks210.2

5.3Marks89.8

2.9Tackles59.8

3.3Clearances35.7

4.3Inside 50s52.9

7.6Contested Poss.127.7

1.5Goals12.8

Disposals

Zac21.3

CAR363.6

Kicks

Zac13.6

CAR210.2

Marks

Zac5.3

CAR89.8

Tackles

Zac2.9

CAR59.8

Clearances

Zac3.3

CAR35.7

Inside 50s

Zac4.3

CAR52.9

Contested Poss.

Zac7.6

CAR127.7

Goals

Zac1.5

CAR12.8

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

CAR concede · Tackles

59.8per game · league avg 56.9

#7 of 18 most conceded

Middle of the road matchup.

Venue split · Tackles

At Docklands3.1(16)+0.6

Everywhere else2.5(155)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)3.9(7)+1.4

Dry games2.5(164)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.