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© 2026 Project Punt · Every number is a real historical stat · Gamble responsibly · Credits
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See allaflThu 19:30WBD◄NOR◄Fri 19:40BRI◄HAW◄See allnrlThu 19:50GLD◄NQL◄Fri 20:00WAR◄PEN◄See allnblFinalSYD113◄ADL101◄See allhorsesR1 13:30Randwick8 racesSee alldogsR1 13:30Wentworth Park8 races
WARRound 23Fri 08-07 · 20:00PEN
JFJackson FordRUN17.5TTTaine TuaupikiRUN16.5JFJames Fisher-HarrisRUN16.5MBMitchell BarnettRUN16.5DWDallin Watene-ZelezniakRUN15.5RTRoger Tuivasa-SheckRUN15.5MMMarcelo MontoyaRUN14.5ECErin ClarkRUN14.5CNCharnze Nicoll-KlokstadRUN13.5APAdam PompeyRUN12.5AKAlofiana Khan-PereiraRUN11.5TSTanner Stowers-SmithRUN11.5
DEDylan EdwardsRUN23.5BTBrian To'oRUN19.5TJThomas JenkinsRUN18.5IPIsaiah Papali'iRUN15.5CMCasey McLeanRUN14.5PA

Line shown = half-line nearest season avg. Bring the real one from your bookie.

JFJackson Ford17.5TTTaine Tuaupiki16.5JFJames Fisher-Harris16.5MBMitchell Barnett16.5DWDallin Watene-Zelezniak15.5RTRoger Tuivasa-Sheck15.5MMMarcelo Montoya14.5ECErin Clark
Paul Alamoti
RUN
14.5
JEJaxen EdgarRUN14.5
IYIsaah YeoRUN13.5
NCNathan ClearyRUN13.5
Liam HenryLiam HenryRUN13.5
LSLindsay SmithRUN11.5
TMTaylan MayRUN11.5
14.5
CNCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad13.5
APAdam Pompey12.5
AKAlofiana Khan-Pereira11.5
TSTanner Stowers-Smith11.5
DEDylan Edwards23.5
BTBrian To'o19.5
TJThomas Jenkins18.5
IPIsaiah Papali'i15.5
CMCasey McLean14.5
PAPaul Alamoti14.5
JEJaxen Edgar14.5
IYIsaah Yeo13.5
NCNathan Cleary13.5
Liam HenryLiam Henry13.5
LSLindsay Smith11.5
TMTaylan May11.5
TriesTry AssistsTackle BreaksLine BreaksRun MetresTacklesOffloadsRunsPointsGoalsLine Break AssistsPost Contact MetresFantasy Points
Current to Round 22, today
AL
Ali Leiataua
New Zealand Warriors · vs PEN
9.5 RUNO —U —
Hit rate
63% (10/16)
enter odds to compare
Avg
9.9
L5
12.4
L10
12.0
High
14
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
Splits · o9.5
8SYDMar 067CBRMar 138NEWMar 217MELApr 115GLDApr 184DOLApr 2510BRIMay 1710SGIMay 2311PENMay 3114CROJun 1313NQLJun 2113DOLJun 2712WSTJul 1012SGIJul 1812CBYJul 2513GLDAug 01?PENAug 079.5
Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 10.2°C☂ 0mm (10%)🌬 11.1 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Alivs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
99.6
61
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1564.5
Ali 99.6/game
PEN concedes 1564.5/game · league avg 1691.0
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.4
90
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.2
Ali 3.4/game
PEN concedes 31.2/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
13.7
41
Tacklesneutral
100
369.8
Ali 13.7/game
PEN concedes 369.8/game · league avg 345.0
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
68
Triesunfavorable
0
2.5
Ali 0.3/game
PEN concedes 2.5/game · league avg 4.1
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
80
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.3
Ali 0.3/game
PEN concedes 2.3/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
78
Line Breaksunfavorable
0
3.9
Ali 0.4/game
PEN concedes 3.9/game · league avg 5.1
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
52
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.3
Ali 0.4/game
PEN concedes 8.3/game · league avg 9.8
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
29.4
55
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
545.3
Ali 29.4/game
PEN concedes 545.3/game · league avg 545.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Ali99.6
61
PEN1564.5
25
Ali 99.6/game
PEN concedes 1564.5/game · league avg 1691.0
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Ali3.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

PEN concede · Runs

181.3per game · league avg 186.3
#13 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Runs

At Go Media Stadium9.6(11)-0.5
Everywhere else10.1(21)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games9.9(32)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.

Similar players vs PEN · Runs

Avg diff
+0.5
Avg diff %
+6%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-01CBREthan Strange8.911+24%
08-01CBRJed Stuart9.414+49%
08-01CBRAta Mariota9.610+5%
07-23PARDylan Walker9.18-12%
07-23PARKelma Tuilagi9.711+13%
07-23PARSam Tuivaiti9.715+54%
07-16BRIEzra Mam9.49-4%
07-16BRIBrendan Piakura10.12-80%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Ali's. Computed from this app's own records.
90
PEN31.2
25
Ali 3.4/game
PEN concedes 31.2/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tacklesneutral
Ali13.7
41
PEN369.8
100
Ali 13.7/game
PEN concedes 369.8/game · league avg 345.0
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Triesunfavorable
Ali0.3
68
PEN2.5
0
Ali 0.3/game
PEN concedes 2.5/game · league avg 4.1
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Try Assistsunfavorable
Ali0.3
80
PEN2.3
0
Ali 0.3/game
PEN concedes 2.3/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Line Breaksunfavorable
Ali0.4
78
PEN3.9
0
Ali 0.4/game
PEN concedes 3.9/game · league avg 5.1
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Offloadsunfavorable
Ali0.4
52
PEN8.3
6
Ali 0.4/game
PEN concedes 8.3/game · league avg 9.8
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
Post Contact Metresneutral
Ali29.4
55
PEN545.3
50
Ali 29.4/game
PEN concedes 545.3/game · league avg 545.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded