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© 2026 Project Punt · Every number is a real historical stat · Gamble responsibly · Credits
WARRound 23Fri 08-07 · 20:00PEN
JFJackson FordTK41.5WEWayde EganTK31.5KCKurt CapewellTK31.5JFJames Fisher-HarrisTK31.5ECErin ClarkTK28.5JLJacob LabanTK26.5MBMitchell BarnettTK25.5TMTe Maire MartinTK23.5TSTanner Stowers-SmithTK21.5LHLeka HalasimaTK19.5DVDemitric VaimaugaTK18.5BABunty AfoaTK17.5
IYIsaah YeoTK37.5IPIsaiah Papali'iTK33.5Liam HenryLiam HenryTK32.5MKMitch KennyTK31.5LSLindsay SmithTK28.5

Line shown = half-line nearest season avg. Bring the real one from your bookie.

JFJackson Ford41.5WEWayde Egan31.5KCKurt Capewell31.5JFJames Fisher-Harris31.5ECErin Clark28.5JLJacob Laban26.5MBMitchell Barnett25.5TMTe Maire Martin
FL
Freddy Lussick
TK
27.5
LMLiam MartinTK26.5
MLMoses LeotaTK24.5
PRPreston RikiTK23.5
SSScott SorensenTK23.5
LGLuke GarnerTK21.5
NCNathan ClearyTK20.5
23.5
TSTanner Stowers-Smith21.5
LHLeka Halasima19.5
DVDemitric Vaimauga18.5
BABunty Afoa17.5
IYIsaah Yeo37.5
IPIsaiah Papali'i33.5
Liam HenryLiam Henry32.5
MKMitch Kenny31.5
LSLindsay Smith28.5
FLFreddy Lussick27.5
LMLiam Martin26.5
MLMoses Leota24.5
PRPreston Riki23.5
SSScott Sorensen23.5
LGLuke Garner21.5
NCNathan Cleary20.5
TriesTry AssistsTackle BreaksLine BreaksRun MetresTacklesOffloadsRunsPointsGoalsLine Break AssistsPost Contact MetresFantasy Points
Current to Round 22, today
MM
Marcelo Montoya
New Zealand Warriors · vs PEN
4.5 TKO —U —
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
enter odds to compare
Avg
4.5
L5
2.6
L10
4.5
High
10
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
Splits · o4.5
6SGIFeb 284CBRMar 19☂10NEWMar 289SOUApr 033PENApr 092PARApr 194BRIApr 240NQLMay 017MELMay 220WSTJul 18?PENAug 074.5
Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 10.2°C☂ 0mm (10%)🌬 11.1 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Marcelovs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
125.6
78
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1564.5
Marcelo 125.6/game
PEN concedes 1564.5/game · league avg 1691.0
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.3
88
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.2
Marcelo 3.3/game
PEN concedes 31.2/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.5
15
Tacklesneutral
100
369.8
Marcelo 4.5/game
PEN concedes 369.8/game · league avg 345.0
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Triesunfavorable
0
2.5
Marcelo 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.5/game · league avg 4.1
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.3
Marcelo 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.3/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
67
Line Breaksunfavorable
0
3.9
Marcelo 0.3/game
PEN concedes 3.9/game · league avg 5.1
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
45
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.3
Marcelo 0.3/game
PEN concedes 8.3/game · league avg 9.8
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
37.9
71
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
545.3
Marcelo 37.9/game
PEN concedes 545.3/game · league avg 545.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Marcelo125.6
78
PEN1564.5
25
Marcelo 125.6/game
PEN concedes 1564.5/game · league avg 1691.0
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Marcelo3.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

PEN concede · Tackles

369.8per game · league avg 345.0
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At Go Media Stadium4.8(21)+0.2
Everywhere else4.6(89)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)5.4(8)+0.8
Dry games4.6(102)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.

Similar players vs PEN · Tackles

Avg diff
-0.7
Avg diff %
-12%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-01CBRXavier Savage4.42-55%
08-01CBRJed Stuart4.16+48%
08-01CBRKaeo Weekes3.54+16%
07-23PARJosh Addo-Carr5.45-7%
07-16BRIReece Walsh4.42-54%
07-16BRIJosiah Karapani4.68+74%
07-16BRIDeine Mariner5.95-16%
07-16BRIGrant Anderson5.30-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Marcelo's. Computed from this app's own records.
88
PEN31.2
25
Marcelo 3.3/game
PEN concedes 31.2/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tacklesneutral
Marcelo4.5
15
PEN369.8
100
Marcelo 4.5/game
PEN concedes 369.8/game · league avg 345.0
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Triesunfavorable
Marcelo0.1
39
PEN2.5
0
Marcelo 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.5/game · league avg 4.1
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Try Assistsunfavorable
Marcelo0.0
0
PEN2.3
0
Marcelo 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.3/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Line Breaksunfavorable
Marcelo0.3
67
PEN3.9
0
Marcelo 0.3/game
PEN concedes 3.9/game · league avg 5.1
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Offloadsunfavorable
Marcelo0.3
45
PEN8.3
6
Marcelo 0.3/game
PEN concedes 8.3/game · league avg 9.8
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
Post Contact Metresneutral
Marcelo37.9
71
PEN545.3
50
Marcelo 37.9/game
PEN concedes 545.3/game · league avg 545.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
All
See allaflThu 19:30WBD◄NOR◄Fri 19:40BRI◄HAW◄See allnrlThu 19:50GLD◄NQL◄Fri 20:00WAR◄PEN◄See allnblFinalSYD113◄ADL101◄See allhorsesR1 13:30Randwick8 racesSee alldogsR1 13:30Wentworth Park8 races