Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Luke McDonald

North Melbourne · @ HAW

10.5 KIO —U —

Hit rate

41% (7/17)

enter odds to compare

Avg

10.1

8.2

L10

8.6

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ HAW

Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.9°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 14.5 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Lukevs all playersStatHAW concedePer game

15.5Disposals355.0

10.1Kicks205.1

5.5Marks81.7

1.9Tackles60.8

0.2Clearances34.2

1.2Inside 50s51.3

3.2Contested Poss.127.8

0.1Goals12.3

Disposals

Luke15.5

HAW355.0

Kicks

Luke10.1

HAW205.1

Marks

Luke5.5

HAW81.7

Tackles

Luke1.9

HAW60.8

Clearances

Luke0.2

HAW34.2

Inside 50s

Luke1.2

HAW51.3

Contested Poss.

Luke3.2

HAW127.8

Goals

Luke0.1

HAW12.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

HAW concede · Kicks

205.1per game · league avg 213.8

#15 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Kicks

At York Park11.7(3)+0.9

Everywhere else10.8(136)

Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Kicks

Wet games (≥1mm)9.6(7)-1.3

Dry games10.8(132)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.